Trailing the Consensus
US economy has added 214k new jobs in October, trailing the consensus of 235k additional new jobs and lower than the 257k new jobs added in September. The unemployment rate however, ticked lower to 5.8% from 5.9% during the same period.
October’s NFP was the ninth consecutive figure above 200k, the longest since 1994, despite it fell below the market consensus. The US equities were relatively flat at the end of the day. As long as the payrolls maintain its number above 200k, the market is likely to stay relatively optimistic on how the US economy would be able to weather the upcoming higher rates in the US. Jobs market has been one of FOMC’s key trigger for raising rates and so far the figures were solid enough to justify the central bank to raise the Fed funds rate sometime in 2015. In its recent meeting the FOMC has scrapped its bond-purchasing program.
USDIDR stepped back to 12,149 from 12,179 on Friday.
MSCI, RBMS, Ratings
MSCI Indonesia small cap semi-annual index review had three stocks added to the list: ELSA, TARA, and WTON while removing TAXI, PADI, SRIL and TRAM.
RBMS sales hit Rp22.57b in 9M14, up from Rp15.22b booked in last year, but the bottom line saw Rp3.96b losses compared to last year’s losses of Rp2.65b
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APLN’s outlook has been revised to Negative from Positive by Pefindo; Fitch has assigned a national long-term rating of A(idn) with stable outlook to SRTG; Moody’s has affirmed B1 corporate family rating on SRIL and B1 rating on $300 million senior unsecured notes.
Technically Speaking...
JCI crashed below the 5k mark on Friday, taking out the key support at 4,995 despite it remains within the confines of 4,900-5,100 trading range.
Losing the 5k support could lead to more downside as the index is now eyeing at the bottom end of the range around 4,900. In-between, the 200-day EMA at around 4,920 will be the subsequent cushion for the JCI. Below 4,900, support area lies at 4,835-4,840 (prior congestion area).
On the upside, former support at 5k now turns as resistance, while 5,100 will be the next interim resistance, followed by 5,150 and 5,200 and another one at 5,251, ahead of the all-time record high at 5,262.
The MACD continued to edge lower while the RSI fell again.
For Monday, expect the trading range between 4,900 and 5,000.
Week Ahead
We still expect the JCI to remain confined within the recent range of 4,900-5.100, but with downside bias as fuel price hike announcement will be seen as short-term negative despite its longer-run benefits. Less than expected US nonfarm payrolls figure is also seen as a neutral catalyst. Individual plays are expected to dominate as the market is still digesting the recent flow of 3Q14 financial reports. Technical analysis of JCI however, shows weakness is on the horizon as the Friday’s fall took out important support around 5k.
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