In A Standstill
JCI maintained its tight consolidation range on Friday as the index ended at 5,049.49.
Balance of Payments recorded a surplus in the 3Q14 of US$6.5bn, up from US$4.3bn surplus in the 2Q14. The US$6.84bn current account deficit was offset by US$13.7bn of financial and capital account surpluses.
CAD has eased to US$6.84bn or 3.07% of GDP in 3Q14. The amount was less than US$8.69bn or 4.07% seen in prior quarter. Surplus in the non-oil and gas sector was the factor behind the improvement.
Indonesia’s Sovereign Credit Rating was affirmed at BBB/Stable Outlook by Fitch Ratings. On the planned fuel prices increase, Fitch said it would create fiscal space of better public infrastructure spending and would help reduce CAD and increase foreign confidence.
USDIDR inched higher to end the week at 12,200 compared to 12,191 seen on Thursday.
ECII, MDRN, SRIL
On its 13th anniversary, ECII has launched several premium after sales services: EC Express, EC 24-hour Repair and EC Service Contract. The aim of these programs are to boost customers’ satisfaction.
By the end of 3Q14, the 7-Eleven outlets have contributed a significant share of 68% to the overall MDRN’s revenues. About 175 outlets have been scattered around Jakarta and will continue to be developed according to the consumers’ needs. By the end of 2014, the 7-Eleven outlets are expected to contribute 70% of total sales of MDRN.
SRIL has been assigned a national long-term rating of A (idn) with a stable outlook by Fitch Ratings.
Technically Speaking...
JCI inched higher on Friday as it ended the session at 5,049.49, the third consecutive listless session.
Should the index fails to follow through the recent gains with a clean break of 5,100 resistance level, it will risk returning to the bottom end of the current consolidation range between 4,900 and 5,100.
Beyond 5,100, the next interim resistance will be 5,150, followed by 5,200 and another one at 5,251, ahead of the all-time record high at 5,262.
The MACD ticked up but still slightly above zero after recent decline, RSI was slightly higher after recent setback.
For Monday, expect the trading range between 4,900 and 5,100 to continue to be the JCI’s playground.
Week Ahead
We still expect the JCI to remain confined within the recent range of 4,900-5.100. Fuel price hike is closing in as the VP recently said that the fuel price adjustment will wait until President Jokowi returns from his overseas visits. The hike is considered as a potential drag for the index as it will be seen as short-term negative despite its longer-run benefits. Technical outlook is steady, but risks remain balanced.
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