DISCLAIMER

This research report is prepared by PT MINNA PADI INVESTAMA Tbk for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. The report has been prepared without regard to individual financial circumstance, need or objective of person to receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of any particular investment or strategy whether opined on or referred to in this report or otherwise will depend on an investor’s individual circumstance and objective and should be independently evaluated and confirmed by such investor, and, if appropriate, with his professional advisers independently before adoption or implementation (either as is or varied).

Selasa, 04 November 2014

Morning Dew - 5 November 2014



Prelude to Energy Shock

JCI fell 0.29% amidst lack of fresh catalysts but the index maintains its position within a wide range of 4,900-5,100.

VP Jusuf Kalla confirmed that subsidized fuel prices will be increased this November. No specific mention about how much the raise will be, but the consensus is around Rp2,000 to Rp3,0000 per liter which represents a nearly 50% of increase.

Previously, on Monday the government launched three forms of social safety nets to anticipate higher fuel prices: KIS (Kartu Indonesia Sehat), KIP (Kartu Indonesia Pintar) and KKS (Kartu Keluarga Sejahtera).

A while back, BI Governor Agus Martowardojo said that raising subsidized fuel prices is a way to deal with the twin deficits faced by the government: the fiscal one and the current account.

USDIDR inched higher to 12,130 from 12,105 on Monday.

PTPP, WTON

PTPP plans to spend Rp490.6b for capex in 2015, up from this year’s Rp446b. The sources for the capex will come from internal cash, bank loans as well as bonds. By August 2014, the company has realized 50% of the total capex prepared or about Rp225b.

WTON is set to start the construction of its concrete factory in Balikpapan. The factory with the capacity of 50-100k tons is scheduled to be completed in 2016. Currently, the company’s production capacity is at 2.2 million tons per year. Its Lampung plant set to be completed this year and to add another 250k tons of production capacity.

Technically Speaking...

JCI remains stuck within the large consolidation range of 4,900 and 5,100 after recent failure to capitalize on an upside breakout above 5,100.

Downside, the psychological support 5,000 will be the first support, followed by the 200-day EMA at around 4,915 will be the subsequent cushion for the JCI, afterwards support area lies at 4,835-4,840 (prior congestion area).

On the upside, 5,100 will be the interim resistance, followed by 5,150 and 5,200 and another one at 5,251, ahead of the all-time record high at 5,262. 

The MACD edged lower while the RSI stumbled near the overbought area.

Upside and downside potentials seem to be in balance as the index is seen returning to its consolidation range between 4,900 and 5,100.

For Wednesday, expect the trading range maintained.

Day Ahead

The big question now is not about when the fuel prices are to be raised, but it’s about how much will they be raised. One thing is clear though: we’re facing another energy shock similar to last year. The difference is that this time it was well advertised before the presidential election and this time the savings from the subsidy cut are hopefully, used to finance the government’s programs. Overall, the JCI is seen fluctuating within its familiar range of 4,900-5,100.

Diposting oleh di 12.56
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