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Senin, 17 November 2014

Morning Dew - 18 November 2014

Energy Shock

The government finally decided to raise the prices of subsidized fuel effective on Tuesday, 18 November 2014. Gasoline price was raised to Rp8,500 from Rp6,500 per liter, while diesel fuel price was raised to Rp7,500 from Rp5,500 per liter.

Earlier estimate by Bank Indonesia stated that an Rp2,000 per liter price hike will add around 2.5 percentage points to the annual inflation pace for about three months before the impact dissipates. This will bring annual inflation to 7% in November-January before normalizing in subsequent months. 

The government aims at shifting the subsidies towards the more productive sectors such as construction of infrastructures, particularly marine infrastructures which involve 24 seaports mentioned by Jokowi during the recent APEC meeting. Other sectors aimed are healthcare and education.

USDIDR eased to 12,193 on Monday after it hit 12,206 on Friday.

MDLN & BRNA

MDLN: Jan-Oct 2014 residential sales reached Rp1.66tn (93% of Rp1.79tn target for 2014); Jan-Oct 2014 industrial sales reached Rp1.02tn (93% of Rp1.1tn target for 2014). Land sale to ASRI amounted to Rp642bn in Jan-Oct 2014 while another Rp250bn to be received in Nov-Dec 2014. More negotiations over JGC sales of commercial area and some negotiations over industrial land in Cikande are in progress with 10-15 potential customers.

BRNA: sales growth of 15-20% is expected in 2015 with 2014 sales expected to reach Rp1.1tn. Based on 3Q14 report, sales were up 34.44% to Rp943.5bn while net profit reached Rp41.33bn compared to Rp3.8bn seen in 3Q13.

Technically Speaking...

JCI was slightly higher on Monday as it ended the session at 5,053.94, the fourth consecutive listless session.

Should the index fails to follow through the recent gains with a clean break of 5,100 resistance level, it will risk returning to the bottom end of the current consolidation range between 4,900 and 5,100.

Beyond 5,100, the next interim resistance will be 5,150, followed by  5,200 and another one at 5,251, ahead of the all-time record high at 5,262. 

The MACD ticked up but still slightly above zero after recent decline, RSI was slightly higher after recent rebound.

For Tuesday, expect the trading range between 4,900 and 5,100 to continue to be the JCI’s playground.

Day Ahead

We still expect the JCI to remain confined within the recent range of 4,900-5.100. Fuel price hike has been announced and may put the index under pressure again, albeit temporary as the issue has been swirling around the market since Jokowi’s campaign days. Technical outlook of the JCI remains neutral but persistent bump onto the resistance at 5,100 may eventually push the index down.

Diposting oleh di 13.27
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