Growth Slowed
Economic growth slowed to 5.01% (year-on-year) in 3Q14, the slowest pace in five years. Previously, in 2Q14 the GDP grew 5.12% (year-on-year) while in 3Q13 it grew 5.62% (year-on-year).
GDP slowdown was attributed mainly on two factors: slowing global growth and the impact from recent ban on mineral ore exports (although somewhat relaxed on some commodities after its adoption).
Slowing global growth came mostly from China, one major source of demand for Indonesia’s commodities. In additions, vulnerable commodities’ prices have also weighed on exports.
Private consumption’s share towards GDP has also declined in 3Q14 to 55.11% from 55.72%, and this could slip further considering the government is planning to cut fuel subsidy further.
USDIDR fell to 12,092 from 12,130 on Tuesday.
BIRD, BRNA
BIRD took off on its first flight on Wednesday as the taxi operator finished its first session up 14.62%. Originally set the offering price between Rp7,200 and Rp9,300, BIRD eventually offered at Rp6,500. According to the company, the demand mostly came from foreign investors (60-65%) while the remainder came from domestic investors.
BRNA booked a sterling financial performance in 9M14 as net profit went more than tenfold from Rp3.81b to Rp41.33b. Forex gains were the major driver for the increase while revenues grew from Rp701.75b to Rp948.5b.
Technically Speaking...
JCI remains stuck within the large consolidation range of 4,900 and 5,100 after recent failure to capitalize on an upside breakout above 5,100.
Downside, the psychological support 5,000 will be the first support, followed by the 200-day EMA at around 4,915 will be the subsequent cushion for the JCI, afterwards support area lies at 4,835-4,840 (prior congestion area).
On the upside, 5,100 will be the interim resistance, followed by 5,150 and 5,200 and another one at 5,251, ahead of the all-time record high at 5,262.
The MACD edged lower while the RSI stumbled near the overbought area.
Upside and downside potentials seem to be in balance as the index is seen returning to its consolidation range between 4,900 and 5,100.
For Thursday, expect the trading range maintained around 4,900-5,100.
Day Ahead
We still expect the JCI to remain confined within the recent range of 4,900-5.100 as the market is now waiting for the government’s decision to raise the prices of subsidized fuel. Combined with recent GDP data which showed that slowdown continued in 3Q14, an energy shock from higher fuel prices could dent growth further. This will distance the economy farther from reaching Jokowi’s GDP target of around 7%. From abroad, the market also awaits the release of US nonfarm payrolls for October next Friday.
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