A Mixed Start
JCI started November on a mixed tone as the consolidation continues within a wide range of 4,900-5,100.
With nearly all of the constituents have already submitted their 3Q14 reports, there will be yet another shortage of key catalysts.
On the macroeconomics front, inflation data showed that October inflation hit 0.47%, higher accelerating from September’s rate of 0.27%.The year-on-year figure came in at 4.83%, up from 4.54% seen in September. Core inflation, which strips volatile food and fuel prices, came in at 4.02%, slower than 4.04% registered on September. Higher electricity tariffs and volatile food prices were cited as the causes of accelerating inflation.
USDIDR inched higher to 12,105 from 12,082 on Monday.
Trade and Manufacturing
Trade balance showed narrowing deficit in September, from US$318 million to US$270 million. Oil and gas items showed deficit of US$1.03b while the non-oil and gas still recorded surplus of US$760 million.
HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index for October showed Indonesia’s manufacturing activity slipped to 49.2 points from 50.7 points. Figure below 50 represents contraction while above 50 signifies expansion.
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 index soared after the Bank of Japan increased stimulus, contrasting the removal of quantitative easing by the US Federal Reserve.
Technically Speaking...
JCI had a brief spell above 5,100 on Monday but finished the session back below it.
Downside, the psychological support 5,000 will be the first support, followed by the 200-day EMA at around 4,915 will be the subsequent cushion for the JCI, afterwards support area lies at 4,835-4,840 (prior congestion area).
On the upside, 5,100 will be the interim resistance, followed by 5,150 and 5,200 and another one at 5,251, ahead of the all-time record high at 5,262.
The MACD ticked higher while the RSI stumbled near the overbought area.
Upside and downside potentials seem to be in balance as the index is seen returning to its consolidation range between 4,900 and 5,100.
For Tuesday, expect the trading range maintained but with slight upside bias.
Day Ahead
Higher than average October inflation came in at the time when the market awaits for the government’s decision over the fuel subsidy. How much and when the fuel prices are to be raised will be the market’s next focus. From abroad, the global market will once again sets its eyes on the US jobs report which is expected to moderate from 248k to 228k in October while jobless rate steady at 5.9%. Overall, the JCI is seen fluctuating within its familiar range of 4,900-5,100.
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar