DISCLAIMER

This research report is prepared by PT MINNA PADI INVESTAMA Tbk for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. The report has been prepared without regard to individual financial circumstance, need or objective of person to receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of any particular investment or strategy whether opined on or referred to in this report or otherwise will depend on an investor’s individual circumstance and objective and should be independently evaluated and confirmed by such investor, and, if appropriate, with his professional advisers independently before adoption or implementation (either as is or varied).

Rabu, 19 November 2014

Morning Dew - 20 November 2014

Inflation Puzzle

JCI staged another rally on Wednesday, hitting 5,141 which opens up more upside potential on the back of optimism that rechanneling of government subsidies will bear fruit in the future with the country as the benefactor reaping the profits.

Foreign debt ballooned by the end of September 2014 to US$292bn, up 11.2% year-on-year. Privately-held foreign debt reached US$159.3bn during the period, 14% higher from a year ago. Financial, manufacturing and mining sectors were the dominating sectors contributing to these foreign debts.

Public sector however, saw less growth in debt as debt increased 7.8% year-on-year to US$132.9bn. According to BI, the ratio of external debt to GDP has increased to 34.68% in Sep 2014 vs. 2Q14 (34.00%). Debt service ratio was up from 44.29% (2Q14) to 46.16% (3Q14).

In the US, Fed Minutes of recent FOMC meeting reveals that there were concerns over the possibility that deflation may occur as inflation may not be growing as fast as earlier expected. 

USDIDR eased further to 12,124 on Wednesday from 12,146.

GZCO, SSMS, JSPT

GZCO’s subsidiary PT Suryabumi Agrolanggeng has obtained loan from BNII worth Rp783bn. The loan will be used to acquire a CPO plantation in South Sumatera with a seze of 8,731.08ha.

SSMS is set to acquire two CPO plantation companies PT Tanjung Sawit Abadi and PT Sawit Multi Utama. The total amount for the deal is Rp1.55tn and will be carried out through its subsidiary PT Kalimantan Sawit Abadi.

JSPT aims at 10-15% of growth in revenues in 2015 vs. 2014. Capex for 2015 will be Rp1.2tn with and only Rp160bn has been used so far for the Mega Kuningan project. The project is expected to contribute significantly in 2016.

Technically Speaking...

JCI rallied again on Wednesday as it approached the next resistance at 5,150.

Should the index fails to follow through the recent gains, it will risk returning to the bottom end of the recent consolidation range between 4,900 and 5,100.

A clean and decisive break beyond the next interim resistance at 5,150 will bring the index to test 5,200 and subsequently 5,251, ahead of the all-time record high at 5,262. 

The MACD continues to tick above zero while RSI curled lower a bit after recent rebound.

For Thursday, expect the trading range between 5,000-5,250.

We have removed WSKT from the reco list as it has reached its designated target at Rp1,000.

Day Ahead

As the fog of uncertainties over the prices of subsidized fuel clears, the market responded positively, bringing the JCI back on track to challenge the all-time high at 5,262. For Thursday, there is still more to explore upwards, but the higher it goes, the risk of getting knocked on corrective move will also increase. In addition, Fed inflation puzzle may also weigh on the sentiment on Thursday.

Diposting oleh di 14.03
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