DISCLAIMER

This research report is prepared by PT MINNA PADI INVESTAMA Tbk for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. The report has been prepared without regard to individual financial circumstance, need or objective of person to receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of any particular investment or strategy whether opined on or referred to in this report or otherwise will depend on an investor’s individual circumstance and objective and should be independently evaluated and confirmed by such investor, and, if appropriate, with his professional advisers independently before adoption or implementation (either as is or varied).

Rabu, 09 Juli 2014

Morning Dew - 10 July 2014

Taken Hostage

JCI is set to be taken hostage by the heated political situation over who’s winning the election. It looks like that the final count regarding the election will have to wait until July 22nd as various quick counts led to each side winning the vote. After all, the only legal and official count is the one held by KPU. JCI’s gains during the last few sessions may be trimmed as a result of the renewed uncertainties surrounding the election result.

Indonesia forex reserves have increased 0.7% to US$107.7 billion in June as oil and gas revenues as well as forex term deposits gained during the month. At June’s level, the reserves can finance imports and debt payments for six months, twice the minimum level of global standard of three months.

USDIDR fell to 11,695 per US$, against the prior closing rate of 11,787 per US$.

BPII Debuted

BPII became the next debutant on the JSX as the company offered 150 million shares at a price of Rp500 per share on Tuesday. The stock ended its first trading session up Rp50 or gained 10% at Rp550.

Fed tapering seen completed in October as the FOMC minutes showed. If however, this truly happens, the six-month waiting period after the end of tapering will be until around 2Q15. Hence, the first rate rise will be sometime around 2Q15 and 3Q15.

Technically Speaking...

JCI climbed even higher on Tuesday, moving past the 5k mark, briefly hit the intraday high at 5,050 and eventually settled the day at 5,024.71, up 0.72%.

The next resistance lies at 5,091. Beyond this the index will aim at 5,251 – the all-time high seen last year.

Next support is now seen at 4,870, the former EMA-50 resistance now turned as support. Afterwards, 4,800 and 4,775-4,780 where the 100-day EMA lies.

MACD continued its rise above the zero line while RSI has entered the overbought zone.  Volume gained yet still, opening the door to more gains ahead.
Successive rallies however, may spark technical correction, albeit temporary.

Day Ahead

Conflicting quick counts results means that the country will have to hold its breath and wait until July 22nd when the official result will be announced by the KPU. The rallying index may stumble upon this issue and retrace back  its advance. BI rate decision next Thursday will be next key event.

Diposting oleh di 14.06
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