DISCLAIMER

This research report is prepared by PT MINNA PADI INVESTAMA Tbk for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. The report has been prepared without regard to individual financial circumstance, need or objective of person to receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of any particular investment or strategy whether opined on or referred to in this report or otherwise will depend on an investor’s individual circumstance and objective and should be independently evaluated and confirmed by such investor, and, if appropriate, with his professional advisers independently before adoption or implementation (either as is or varied).

Minggu, 13 Juli 2014

Morning Dew - 14 July 2014

Cooling Down

JCI trimmed its recent gains as investors chose to take some profits off the table amidst uncertainties surrounding the presidential election result. Conflicting quick count results led to both sides claiming victories, and this brought the final answer backwards to July 22nd when KPU announces the official result of the election.

TARA and DNAR debuted on the market. TARA was offered at Rp106 per share during IPO while DNAR was offered at Rp110 per share. TARA finished at Rp180 per share while DNAR at Rp187 per share by the end of their first trading day.

Among several assessments from the recent  BI updates are continuation of global economic growth, albeit lower than prior forecast; slowdown continues on the domestic side during the second quarter; small surplus recorded on the balance of trade, supported by ex-oil and gas surplus; rupiah continued to be under pressure in June while the inflation remained under control. Financial system stability remained solid as supported by the banking system as well as maintained performance of the financial market.

USDIDR bounced to 11,627 per US$, against the prior closing rate of 11,549 per US$.

US Retail Sales & PPI

The coming week will feature the retail sales figure from the US for the month of June. Consensus is pointing at the acceleration of sales from 0.3% to 0.6% while sales ex-autos are expected to gain speed from 0.1% to 0.6%.

Producer inflation and industrial output are the other key data to watch next week. Core PPI is seen up 0.2% in June, against 0.1% decline in May. Industrial production is seen slowing to 0.3% from 0.6% seen a month earlier. 

Technically Speaking...

JCI fell sharply  on Friday as the index retraced its recent gains.

The next resistance lies at 5,165, the recent intraday high. Beyond this the index will aim at 5,251 – the all-time high seen last year.

Near-term support is seen at 5,000, followed by 4,900, the former EMA-50 resistance now turned as support. Afterwards, 4,800 and 4,775-4,780 where the 100-day EMA lies.

MACD advance stalled and it ticked down a bit, while RSI has entered the overbought zone and fell slightly.  Volume dipped during the decline, suggesting that the fall might have been temporary.

Week Ahead

Conflicting quick counts results means that the country will have to hold its breath and wait until July 22nd when the official result will be announced by the KPU. Still, the market seems to be favoring Jokowi-JK’s win. Early euphoria seemed to be short-lived and the mood has returned to somewhat neutral. Stay cautious until the real results are announced.

Diposting oleh di 11.25
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