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This research report is prepared by PT MINNA PADI INVESTAMA Tbk for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. The report has been prepared without regard to individual financial circumstance, need or objective of person to receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of any particular investment or strategy whether opined on or referred to in this report or otherwise will depend on an investor’s individual circumstance and objective and should be independently evaluated and confirmed by such investor, and, if appropriate, with his professional advisers independently before adoption or implementation (either as is or varied).

Kamis, 03 Juli 2014

Morning Dew - 4 July 2014

Job Outlook Brightened

JCI stepped back on Thursday to end at 4,888.74, unable to capitalize on its prior gains. The index returned to its previous trading range as the upcoming presidential election saps investors’ appetite to take on risk.

US Non-Farm Payrolls released on Thursday (as Friday will see US markets closed for national holiday) sent a strong signal that things are going for the better for the US economy. Payrolls shot up by 288k in June after 224k seen in May. In addition, the unemployment rate improved to 6.1% from 6.3% The actual figures trumped the consensus numbers which forecast a 215k advance in payrolls and the unemployment rate at 6.3%.

As a result, economists are now seeing the Fed funds rate to start increasing sooner rather than later. Last month, the Fed officials forecast the rate will be 1.13% at the end of 2015 and 2.5% a year afterwards.

USDIDR bounced to 11,963 per US$, against the prior closing rate of 11,854 per US$.

Dow Above 17k

Dow set yet new historical high as the average finally broke through the 17k barrier.
US Trade Balance also saw improvement in May as deficit shrunk to US44.4bio from US$47.0bio against US$45.0bio forecast earlier.

Non-manufacturing ISM also continues to expand in June despite showing slight slowdown. The index slipped from 56.3 to 56.0 against the consensus of 56.3.

Technically Speaking...

JCI’s advance took a pause on Thursday as the index slipped back to its prior trading range.

The next resistance lies at 4,909, and immediately at 4,939 followed by 5k and subsequently at 5,091. Beyond the latter the index will aim at 5,251 – the all-time high seen last year.

Next support is now seen at 4,870, the former EMA-50 resistance now turned as support. Afterwards, 4,800 and 4,775-4,780 where the 100-day EMA lies.

MACD inched slightly higher managed to finish above the zero line while RSI has continued to seesaw near the neutral zone.  Volume slipped, suggesting we may consolidate recent gains first before breaking out of the consolidation range.

Day  Ahead

JCI is seen to continue trading within the confine of its consolidation range as the market essentially awaiting for the upcoming July 9th presidential election. Still, record Dow will support the index on Friday. After several key data were released earlier this week, all eyes will be focusing on the BI rate decision on Thursday next week, a day after the presidential election.

Diposting oleh di 16.20
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