DISCLAIMER

This research report is prepared by PT MINNA PADI INVESTAMA Tbk for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. The report has been prepared without regard to individual financial circumstance, need or objective of person to receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of any particular investment or strategy whether opined on or referred to in this report or otherwise will depend on an investor’s individual circumstance and objective and should be independently evaluated and confirmed by such investor, and, if appropriate, with his professional advisers independently before adoption or implementation (either as is or varied).

Rabu, 02 Juli 2014

Morning Dew - 3 July 2014

On the Edge

JCI gained for another session as the index inched closer to the upper-end of the current consolidation range. It has been moving back and forth inside the consolidation range in the anticipation of the presidential election next week

BI rate event next week, just a day after the presidential election is expected to deliver no changes in interest rate.

Updating the recommendation pool, CSAP trade has been settled at Rp425, almost 50% gains from its entry price at Rp285. Replacing CSAP is MBSS which has also met its entry price at 1,205. This reco aims at Rp1,650 while the risk is set below 1,050.

On the data front, the next big thing comes from the US with jobless claims on Thursday, followed by the release of nonfarm payrolls on Friday.

USDIDR bounced to 11,854 per US$, against the prior closing rate of 11,798 per US$.

ADP Data

Dow set yet new historical high as the average arrived within spitting distance to 17k level.
US private sector added 281k jobs in June, beating the consensus take of 205k additions in jobs. The result was a lot higher than May’s 179k new jobs.
The strong ADP figure may lead to strong payrolls data set for release next Friday.
For now, the payrolls number is seen slightly down to 213k from 216k while the unempoyment rate is seen stuck at 6.3%.

Technically Speaking...

JCI continued to climb and within striking distance to the nearest resistance at 4,909. We may see a follow through on Thursday,  but the index still need more evidence to convince that the downside is over.

The next resistance lies at 4,909, and immediately at 4,939 followed by 5k and subsequently at 5,091. Beyond the latter the index will aim at 5,251 – the all-time high seen last year.

Next support is now seen at 4,870, the former EMA-50 resistance now turned as support. Afterwards, 4,800 and 4,775-4,780 where the 100-day EMA lies.

MACD inched slightly higher managed to finish above the zero line while RSI has continued to seesaw near the neutral zone.  Volume slipped, suggesting we may consolidate recent gains first before breaking out of the consolidation range.

MBSS entry price has been filled at 1,205.

Day  Ahead

JCI is seen to continue trading within the confine of its consolidation range as the market essentially awaiting for the upcoming July 9th presidential election. After several key data were released earlier this week, all eyes will be focusing on the BI rate decision on Thursday next week, a day after the presidential election.

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