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Selasa, 22 Juli 2014

Morning Dew - 23 July 2014

Jokowi-JK Won

Optimism replaced with caution on Tuesday before the KPU announced the result of presidential election. The JCI surrendered its Monday’s gains and settled back at 5,083.52, down 0.85%.

At the end of the day, Jokowi-JK was announced as the winners of the presidential election with 70,997,833 or 53.15% of votes against 62,576,444 or 46.85% of the votes gained by Prabowo-Hatta.

Prabowo-Hatta have 3 days to bring any disputes to the Constitutional Court, and should this happen will drag the finalization of the result for a while longer, opening a door for soft JCI.

On the global front, major stock market indexes rallied but geopolitical tensions coming from Ukraine and the Middle East will keep the upside somewhat limited.

USDIDR fell further to end at 11,531 per US$ from 11,577 per US$ on Tuesday.

US Data

US Consumer Price Index was steady at 2.1% in June (YoY), as expected. Ex-food and energy, CPI slowed to 1.9% from 2.0% (YoY). Month-on-month, headline CPI slowed from 0.4% to 0.3% while the core measure also slowed to 0.1% from 0.3%.
 
Existing home sales slowed to 2.6%  in June (MoM), from 4.9% seen in May, but better than the consensus of 2% gains forecast earlier.

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index ticked higher in July from 3 to 7, beating the consensus forecast of 5.

Technically Speaking...

JCI erased gains on Tuesday after it turned tail at 5,155, just below the recent peak at 5,165. The index eventually ended the session at 5,083, down 0.85% at the end of the day.

The next resistance lies at 5,165, the recent intraday high. Beyond this the index will aim at 5,251 – the all-time high seen last year.

Near-term supports are seen at 5,039 and 5,000, followed by 4,950, the former EMA-50 resistance now turned as support. 

MACD turned lower, while RSI has continued to fluctuate around the overbought area but heading lower while volume was up sharply.

SMRA and WSKT recos are still awaiting their entry prices to be filled. Please check the details on the table below.

Day Ahead

The announcement of the presidential election result by KPU on Tuesday has passed without any incident, and this will give boost to the JCI sentiment on Wednesday. Still, despite Jokowi-JK’s win, Prabowo-Hatta still have 3 days to bring the issue to the Constitutional Court. If such thing happens, this will bring a drag to the JCI.

Diposting oleh di 14.33
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