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This research report is prepared by PT MINNA PADI INVESTAMA Tbk for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. The report has been prepared without regard to individual financial circumstance, need or objective of person to receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of any particular investment or strategy whether opined on or referred to in this report or otherwise will depend on an investor’s individual circumstance and objective and should be independently evaluated and confirmed by such investor, and, if appropriate, with his professional advisers independently before adoption or implementation (either as is or varied).

Senin, 07 Juli 2014

Morning Dew - 8 July 2014

A Fine Start

JCI kicked off the week with a firm start as the index scored a solid finish just below 5k mark.

Ahead of the Wednesday presidential election the market seems to cheer the result of the latest debate between the candidates held last Saturday. At the final debate, Jokowi-JK seemed to be getting the upper hand against Prabowo-Hatta. Still, based on various recent polls, the gap between the two presidential hopefuls are somewhat thin, suggesting that it would be a very tough call to make on who will be the victor.

IMF Chief Christine Lagarde said that she expects the global economy to improve in the 2H14 as well as 2015. China will be the engine driving the global economic growth as the country is seen growing by 7 to 7.5% this year. IMF will release its official global economic outlook later this month.

USDIDR fell to 11,787 per US$, against the prior closing rate of 11,887 per US$.

MGNA Debuted

MGNA debuted on the JSX. The newcomer was offered at Rp105 per share during the IPO and it ended its first session up Rp50 at Rp155, a 47.62% gains.  

No key data due on Monday, but jobless claims will be released on Thursday along with wholesale trade data. Jobs data will be watched carefully by the markets as the stronger and the better jobs data will push the expectation of rate rise forward. Nevertheless, we still see the Fed to raise rates in 2H15.

Technically Speaking...

JCI climbed on Monday, breaking away from its recent consolidation range and ended close to 5k.

The next resistance lies at 5k and subsequently at 5,091. Beyond the latter the index will aim at 5,251 – the all-time high seen last year.

Next support is now seen at 4,870, the former EMA-50 resistance now turned as support. Afterwards, 4,800 and 4,775-4,780 where the 100-day EMA lies.

MACD continued its rise above the zero line while RSI has continued to march higher approaching the overbought zone.  Volume gained yet still, opening the door to more gains ahead.

Day Ahead

JCI is seen to take a pause after a sizzling climb on Monday as the market essentially awaiting for the upcoming July 9th presidential election. A step back in Dow will also trigger the pause. Beyond the election, all eyes will be focusing on the BI rate decision on next Thursday, a day after the presidential election. BI is seen holding rate steady, however.

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