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Kamis, 10 Juli 2014

Morning Dew - 11 July 2014

Election Euphoria

The market cheered the temporary results from several surveys which mostly favor Jokowi-JK winning the election. Prabowo-Hatta’s victory is, on the other hand, supported by four surveys. Nevertheless, the official and legal result will be announced by KPU on July 22nd and between now and then there will still be a cloud of uncertainties on the actual result.

Bank Indonesia’s meeting ended with no changes in its monetary policy. The central bank maintained its BI rate steady at 7.5% with lending facility and deposit facility rates also stay at 7.5% and 5.75%, respectively.

Among several assessments from the BI are continuation of global economic growth, albeit lower than prior forecast; slowdown continues on the domestic side during the second quarter; small surplus recorded on the balance of trade, supported by ex-oil and gas surplus; rupiah continued to be under pressure in June while the inflation remained under control. Financial system stability remained solid as supported by the banking system as well as maintained performance of the financial market.

USDIDR fell further to 11,549 per US$, against the prior closing rate of 11,695 per US$.

China Data, Jobless Claims

China’s trade surplus shrunk to US$31.6bn in June as imports were up 5.5% and exports were up 7.2%. The trade figure was less than the expected surplus of US$36.95bn and also lower than the surplus recorded in May which stood at US$35.92bn.

Elsewhere, US weekly jobless claims were down to 304k from 315k seen a week earlier. The number was better than 315k forecast previously.
No key US data scheduled this Friday.

Technically Speaking...

JCI gapped higher on Thursday, reaching an intraday high at 5,050 before it settled the day at 5,024.71, up 1.46%.

The next resistance lies at 5,091. Beyond this the index will aim at 5,251 – the all-time high seen last year.

Support is now seen at 4,870, the former EMA-50 resistance now turned as support. Afterwards, 4,800 and 4,775-4,780 where the 100-day EMA lies.
MACD continued its rise above the zero line while RSI has entered the overbought zone.  Volume gained yet still, opening the door to more gains ahead.

Successive rallies however, may spark technical correction, albeit temporary.

WIKA has been benefited by the Thursday’s rally and met its price objective at 2,500. The reco has been closed at 16.82% gains. Now only five recos remain.

Day Ahead

Conflicting quick counts results means that the country will have to hold its breath and wait until July 22nd when the official result will be announced by the KPU. Still, the market seems to be betting on Jokowi-JK’s win rather than staying cautious. Nevertheless, risk of pullback remains, considering the extent of recent rally and some setback in the US and European markets.

Diposting oleh di 14.56
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