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This research report is prepared by PT MINNA PADI INVESTAMA Tbk for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. The report has been prepared without regard to individual financial circumstance, need or objective of person to receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of any particular investment or strategy whether opined on or referred to in this report or otherwise will depend on an investor’s individual circumstance and objective and should be independently evaluated and confirmed by such investor, and, if appropriate, with his professional advisers independently before adoption or implementation (either as is or varied).

Minggu, 06 Juli 2014

Morning Dew - 7 July 2014

Calm Before the Storm

JCI finished the week higher as the nation awaits the upcoming presidential election next Wednesday. Elsewhere, in the U.S., the market was closed to observe the Independence Day, but the latest surge past 17k mark has put the mood on the positive side on the global perspective.

As the second quarter has ended, the 2nd quarter economic growth has been expected to grow 5.3% YoY according to Chatib Basri - the Indonesian FinMin -  as household consumption improved along with exports which has improved slightly. During the first quarter the economic growth slowed to 5.21% YoY.

Strong payrolls number last Thursday brought the notion that the Fed may raise rates sooner rather than later, but our take remains that the Fed funds rate may rise sometime in 2H15.

USDIDR fell to 11,887 per US$, against the prior closing rate of 11,963 per US$.

Back in Business

US market will be back in business on Monday after it was off on Friday. No significant data, news or events are expected until Wednesday, when the Federal Reserve will release the FOMC minutes from the Committee’s latest meeting.

Jobless claims will be released on Thursday along with wholesale trade data. Jobs data will be watched carefully by the markets as the stronger and the better jobs data will push the expectation of rate rise forward. Nevertheless, we still see the Fed to raise rates in 2H15.

Technically Speaking...

JCI’s gained on Friday, consolidating its gains above the 50-day EMA. Still, more convincing move is required to completely break out of its current consolidation range. Until then, the risk of getting pulled back down remains on the table.

The next resistance lies at 4,939 followed by 5k and subsequently at 5,091. Beyond the latter the index will aim at 5,251 – the all-time high seen last year.

Next support is now seen at 4,870, the former EMA-50 resistance now turned as support. Afterwards, 4,800 and 4,775-4,780 where the 100-day EMA lies.
MACD continued its rise above the zero line while RSI has continued to march higher towards the overbought zone.  Volume gained, opening the door to more gains ahead.

Week Ahead

JCI is seen to continue trading within the confine of its consolidation range as the market essentially awaiting for the upcoming July 9th presidential election. Record Dow will support the index, while all eyes will be focusing on the BI rate decision on next Thursday, a day after the presidential election. BI is seen holding rate steady, however.

Diposting oleh di 14.50
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