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This research report is prepared by PT MINNA PADI INVESTAMA Tbk for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. The report has been prepared without regard to individual financial circumstance, need or objective of person to receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of any particular investment or strategy whether opined on or referred to in this report or otherwise will depend on an investor’s individual circumstance and objective and should be independently evaluated and confirmed by such investor, and, if appropriate, with his professional advisers independently before adoption or implementation (either as is or varied).

Kamis, 11 September 2014

Morning Dew - 12 September 2014

Slippery Road

Bank Indonesia kept the rates unchanged as it concluded its rate meeting on Thursday. The key interest rate is set at 7.5% while lending facility and deposit facility were unchanged at 7.5% and 5.75%, respectively.

The central bank’s policy remains consistent with the goal to bring inflation towards the target between 4.5% plus or minus 1% in 2014 and 4% plus one or minus 1% in 2015. Another goal is to reduce the current account deficit to a more healthy level.

National cement sales were up 37.4% (year-on-year) to 4.7 million tons in August 2014 as domestic property and infrastructure developers posted higher demand. Prior month, sales declined 25% (YoY) as Ramadhan usually brings lower demand. In Java, demand increased by 47%, while in Kalimantan and Sumatra saw an increase of 44% and 32.8%, respectively. This year, ASI targets cement sales to grow to 61 million tons. Year-to-date, sales have grown 2.45% to 37.5 million tons (YoY).

ANTM, WIKA

Pefindo maintained ANTM’s rating as well as its PUB I bonds at idA. The outlook for the miner remains at Negative to take into account of further decline on cash flow protection as well as the company’s capital structure due to lower commodity prices. Failure to meet the sales target is also seen as the trigger.

WIKA obtained a contract worth US$125 million to construct Pyay Tower and Residence in Singapore.

USD/IDR continued to climb higher on Thursday to 11,831 from 11,782.

Technically Speaking...

JCI slipped again on Thursday, making it the third consecutive session for the ailing index. The fall took JCI to 5,133.03 where JCI also settled the Thursday.

JCI is expected to struggle in maintaining its hold above 5,100 where the 50-day EMA currently at. Further, it will aim at recovering its ground above 5,200, 5,251 before getting back on track to head towards the next resistance at the next psychological hurdle for the index at 5,300. On the downside, we have returned to prior congestion area around 5,150 where next support comes in at 5,135 (the former lower consolidation band as well as the 50-day EMA support), 5,039 and 5,000.

The MACD continued to fall into the negative area after a brief spell on the positive side, while the RSI fell further to underline the bearish divergence pattern in effect at the moment. 

Day Ahead

BI event passed, leaving another vacuum of key catalysts for JCI. Taking a cue from the technical outlook of the index, it looks as if the weakness may have taken a brake, but not downside risk is not entirely eliminated. We may however, enter another consolidation phase between 5,100-5,250 while waiting for fresh catalysts to show up and provide direction.

Diposting oleh di 15.32
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