Inflation Eased
Inflation eased in August to 0.47% (month-on-month), pushing the year-on-year inflation down to 3.99% from 4.53% a month earlier. As the statistical impact of last year’s fuel price hike has worn off, the inflation rate has gradually decelerating recently. Last month, month-on-month inflation was at 0.93%. Core inflation – which omits volatile prices – also eased to 4.5% from 4.6% (year-on-year).
Trade balance improved in July to US$124 million as imports of machinery and mechanical instruments declined. Last June, the balance was in the red of US$306 million. Consensus saw a deficit of US$400 million, so the result was somewhat significantly higher.
HSBC PMI fell to 49.5 in August from 52.7 in July, underlining a contraction in Indonesian manufacturing activity. A figure below 50 represents contraction whilst above it represents expansion. The result was the lowest pace within the last 12 months.
USDIDR was down at 11,710 on Monday compared to Friday’s closing price of 11,717.
PSAB, ANTM
PSAB booked revenue of US$174.39 million in the first eight months of 2014. Gold sales volume reached US$140,644 troy oz. with the average sell price of US$1,240 per troy oz. The whopping jump brought the company closer to its 2014 production target of 200k oz., thanks to Seruyung and Bakan sites which started its operation last December.
ANTM is still in the red in the first half of 2014 as sales fell 34.92% to Rp3.98tn vs. last year’s Rp6.12tn.
Technically Speaking...
JCI started the week (and the month) on a positive tone as the index bounced off low after it came under pressure last Friday. Monday saw it back on track to challenge the stiff resistance at 5,200 ahead of the all-time high of 5,251.
As for now, JCI is aiming to secure its ground above 5,200 and subsequently the focus will turn to the next resistance at 5,251, the all-time record high while near-term supports are seen at 5,150-65 (congestion area) and then 5,135, the former lower consolidation band, 5,039 and 5,000, followed by 4,950, the former EMA-50 resistance now turned as support.
MACD has swung back to negative area but ticked higher on Monday whilst RSI has backed away from above the 70% mark. Volume continued to tick down.
Overall, the short-term outlook is somewhat precarious, and the index needs to break through 5,251 soon before the bearish signals become more evident.
Day Ahead
Despite mixed data, the overall balance is tilted towards positive mood swing for the JCI as the index started off the week on a solid footing. Tuesday may see some correctional pressure as the JCI takes a breather before attempting to break through the 5,200 barrier towards the all-time high of 5,251.
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