The Fed Factor
JCI bounced on Wednesday ahead of the FOMC meeting to be held later in the US session. The index has been vulnerable recently despite its efforts to stay afloat above the 5,100 mark.
In the US session, the FOMC slashed another US$10 billion from its bond purchasing program to US$15 billion, meaning that the tapering campaign is set to finish in October, as expected.
Fed officials have raised their median estimate for the rates to 1.375% at the end of 2015, higher than their June estimate of 1.125%. Then, for the end of 2017, rate will be at 3.75%.
How the Fed will reach their estimates will be highly conditional and will be highly dependent on the economy, there is no fixed mechanism on the time table. Further, the Fed also said that the labor market has yet to fully recover.
Note that while the Fed seems to continue using the phrase “to keep interest rates near zero for a considerable time after asset purchases are completed”, our take is that the rates may start to rise sometime around six months after the tapering is completed.
TLKM: Shopping Mood
TLKM said that it will acquire an Australian call center company named CCA through its subsidiary PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia International (Telin). TLKM has prepared at least US$12 million to support the plan.
The telco giant has recently said that it will acquire 27% of the ownership of Telecom New Zealand, a telco operator. To finance the NZ deal, the company will use both internal and external funding. At the moment, TLKM has a current assets worth Rp40tn.
Technically Speaking...
JCI seems to have fallen back into a consolidative phase. The index may see itself fluctuating between 5,100-5250 this week.
JCI is expected to struggle in maintaining its hold above 5,100 where the 50-day EMA currently at. Further, it will aim at recovering its ground above 5,200, 5,251 before getting back on track to head towards the next resistance at the next psychological hurdle for the index at 5,300. On the downside, we have returned to prior congestion area around 5,150 where next support comes in at 5,135 (the former lower consolidation band as well as the 50-day EMA support), 5,039 and 5,000.
The MACD has stopped falling, at least for now despite it stays below the zero line. Both RSI and volume also ticked higher, meaning that the downside risk may have subsided for now.
Day Ahead
Post-FOMC meeting JCI is expected to take another attempt to regain the 5,200 resistance mark following a solid finish on Wednesday. Still, the index is seen struggling to break out of the recent range between 5,100 and 5,250. While the upside prospect has somewhat brightened, the downside risk remains especially in the short-term where technical correction may set in after recent gains.
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