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Selasa, 16 September 2014

Morning Dew - 17 September 2014

Coal and CPO Soft

Vulnerability continues as the market awaits for the FOMC meeting to conclude later this week. Hardly any significant catalysts to pull the JCI higher or lower has led the index back to its consolidation phase.

CPO prices fall again as oversupply remains. On Monday, the prices fell to 2,101 ringgit/mt while previously on September 2nd it hit 1,914 ringgit/mt, the lowest price since March 2009. Upside potential seems capped as supplies are abundant while US soybean crop hits record high. Gapki aims at 25 million mt production of CPO in 2014. According to Bloomberg, in August the Indonesian stockpiles of CPO may have reached 2.5 million mt (vs. 2.02 million mt in July). Exports declined to 1.8 million mt,  or fell 2.2%. Bloomberg data is based on five planters and one refinery.

Coal production hit 280 million tons with 224 million being exported abroad during the period of January-August. The government targets a total of 390 to 420 million tons of coal mined this year. HBA for September is set at US$69.69/ton, down from August US$70.29/ton.

CAD, IDR, MDRN

CAD to ease slightly this year, according to Bank Indonesia official. The CAD is seen down to 3.2% of GDP this year, just below the 2013 CAD level of 3.3%.

USDIDR took another round going up to 11,903 on Tuesday after on Monday it settled at 11,875. 

MDRN is aiming to continue developing the F&B business. The company also to add more items for each of its 7-Eleven outlets, which has reached a total number of 175 7-Eleven outlets.

Technically Speaking...

JCI seems to have fallen back into a consolidative phase. The index may see itself fluctuating between 5,100-5250 this week.

JCI is expected to struggle in maintaining its hold above 5,100 where the 50-day EMA currently at. Further, it will aim at recovering its ground above 5,200, 5,251 before getting back on track to head towards the next resistance at the next psychological hurdle for the index at 5,300. On the downside, we have returned to prior congestion area around 5,150 where next support comes in at 5,135 (the former lower consolidation band as well as the 50-day EMA support), 5,039 and 5,000.

The MACD continued to fall into the negative area after a brief spell on the positive side, while the RSI has stopped falling for now and currently hovers around the neutral area.

Day Ahead

Lack of fresh catalysts will bring the JCI back to the consolidation phase. The US Federal Reserve will meet on Sep 17th and the consensus is for another round of tapering. Post-meeting press conference will be the one awaited by the market as investors would want to hear if there’s anything new on the Fed’s policy. Until then, the JCI will stay rangebound.

Diposting oleh di 14.45
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