NPL Worries
JCI started the week looking vulnerable but eventually managed to settled the day higher at 5,114.90. Ahead of the FOMC meeting the index will find lack both of negative or positive catalysts, leading it back to the consolidation phase between 5,100 and 5,250.
From Bank Indonesia, the construction sector has become the most vulnerable sector in terms of non-performing loan (NPL) level in July as the gauge ticked higher to 4.43%. Three other sectors’ NPL also continued to rise: mining (3.09%), trade (3.06%) and social services (2.96%). The banking sector itself is currently at 2.24%, considered safe as it’s well below the 5% threshold.
BCIC is an acquisition target of J Trust, a Japanese company engaged in finance, real estate, IT and amusement sectors. Through a public bidding process conducted by LPS, J Trust has been chosen as the winner with a rumored bid value of US$300 million. OJK will still have to approve the sale, however.
US, China Data
Industrial production fell slightly in the U.S. by 0.1% in August after a 0.2% rise in July while the consensus initially forecast a 0.3% increase. Manufacturing production also dipped 0.4% during the same month, against the consensus 0.1% after the gauge rose 0.7% in July. Consequently, capacity utilization fell to 78.8% from 79.1%.
In China, industrial production slowed to 8.5% in August (YoY) while retail sales stayed strong at 12.1% pace for the same month (YoY).
Technically Speaking...
JCI seems to have fallen back into a consolidative phase. The index may see itself fluctuating between 5,100-5250 this week.
JCI is expected to struggle in maintaining its hold above 5,100 where the 50-day EMA currently at. Further, it will aim at recovering its ground above 5,200, 5,251 before getting back on track to head towards the next resistance at the next psychological hurdle for the index at 5,300. On the downside, we have returned to prior congestion area around 5,150 where next support comes in at 5,135 (the former lower consolidation band as well as the 50-day EMA support), 5,039 and 5,000.
The MACD continued to fall into the negative area after a brief spell on the positive side, while the RSI has stopped falling for now and currently hovers around the neutral area.
Day Ahead
Lack of fresh catalysts will bring the JCI back to the consolidation phase. The US Federal Reserve will meet on Sep 17th and the consensus is for another round of tapering. Post-meeting press conference will be the one awaited by the market as investors would want to hear if there’s anything new on the Fed’s policy. Until then, the JCI will stay rangebound.
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