Another Aim
JCI followed up its Wednesday rise as the index hit 5,216.58 and finished above 5,200, taking another aim at the opportunity to break free from the recent trading range between 5,100-5,250.
No significant changes from the FOMC meeting has brought relief to the market participants amidst lack of key catalysts from the domestic side.
As a reminder, the FOMC has continued its tapering program, leaving just US$15b left which means the entire stimulus will be removed this year. While the Fed officials seem to be reluctant in specifying the timetable of what goes beyond the tapering, the rate rise cycle is expected to kick in in about six months following the end of tapering. This brings mid-2015 as the likely moment when the Fed will start raising rates.
USDIDR has reached 12k with the Thursday closing price at 12,030, up from 11,908.
Auto Sales, META, BSLT
Indonesia car sales jumped 24.1% to 96,728 units in August (year-on-year), bringing the year-to-date total sales to 830,398 units, 5% above the sales during the same period last year.
META’s net profit in 1H14 soared 167% to Rp49.68b on year-on-year basis. Revenues grew 73% with tower business line dominating the company’s revenues.
Bank Sulut (BSLT) offered 11.35% to 12.35% coupon for its 5-year bonds. The bank seeks to raise Rp750bn from this offering. The bond is rated single A by Fitch Ratings Indonesia. Joint underwriters are BCA Sekuritas, Danareksa Sekuritas, Mandiri Sekuritas and MNC Securities.
Technically Speaking...
JCI seems to have fallen back into a consolidative phase. The index may see itself fluctuating between 5,100-5250 this week.
JCI is expected to defend the recently reclaimed 5,200 resistance mark, aiming at taking back its recently won 5,251 resistance ahead of the all-time record high at 5,262. Subsequently, the next psychological hurdle for the index at 5,300. On the downside, we have 5,117, which is roughly the same as the 50-day EMA curve.
Should we broke below this line, more supports are seen at 5,039 and 5,000.
The MACD has continued to approach the zero line, while RSI is now approaching the overbought area again, accompanied by an uptick in volume. While this is somehow a good sign for the index, we should remain cautious over the risk of another setback.
Day Ahead
Too early to conclude that the downside is secured. Even as the index returns above 5,200 mark, it is seen struggling to break out of the recent range between 5,100 and 5,250. While the upside prospect has somewhat brightened, the downside risk remains. Technical indicators has somewhat improved, but we should remain cautious against another corrective dip.
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