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Minggu, 14 September 2014

Morning Dew - 15 September 2014

Eyes on the Fed

Indonesian stocks ended the Friday’s session mixed with the JCI and the LQ-45 indexes finished positive and the IDX30 index slightly lower.

Bank Indonesia said that it will adopt a tight monetary policy until the end of 2014 to maintain its inflation target, to reduce current account deficit as well as to anticipate the impacts of global economic policy. A raise in fuel prices by the new government may push up inflation again sometime in November or December. 

APLN recorded marketing sales amounting to Rp3.13T in the first eight months of 2014. Recently launched Plaza Kenari Mas contributed 6.4% of the total sales while Harco Glodok remains the top contributor with 26.6%, followed by Orchard Park Batam with 24.7%. Podomoro City extension brought 13.6% contribution while Grand Taruma delivered 6%. Borneo Bay Residences and Soho Pancoran each contributed 4.8% followed by Metro Park Residences (4.7%), Vimala Hill (3.7%) and Podomoro City Deli Medan (3.7%).

US Data

US Retail Sales grew 0.6% in August, in line with the consensus, but higher compared to July’s sales growth. Ex-autos, the pace was steady at 0.3%, in line with consensus as well as the same as the prior month. Ex-autos and gas sales were in line with consensus, up from 0.3% to 0.5%. 

University of Michigan’s confidence indicator showed confidence  ticked up to 84.6, from 82.5 and compared to 83.3 expected.

Technically Speaking...

JCI seems to have fallen back into a consolidative phase. The index may see itself fluctuating between 5,100-5250 this coming week.

JCI is expected to struggle in maintaining its hold above 5,100 where the 50-day EMA currently at. Further, it will aim at recovering its ground above 5,200, 5,251 before getting back on track to head towards the next resistance at the next psychological hurdle for the index at 5,300. On the downside, we have returned to prior congestion area around 5,150 where next support comes in at 5,135 (the former lower consolidation band as well as the 50-day EMA support), 5,039 and 5,000.

The MACD continued to fall into the negative area after a brief spell on the positive side, while the RSI has stopped falling for now and currently hovers around the neutral area.

Week Ahead

Lack of fresh catalysts will bring the JCI back to the consolidation phase. The US Federal Reserve will meet on Sep 17th and the consensus is for another round of tapering while keeping the interest rates steady. Post-meeting press conference will be the one awaited by the market as investors would want to hear if there’s anything new on the Fed’s policy.

Diposting oleh di 10.58
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