Ill Omen
JCI managed to steer above 5,200 mark again on Thursday, but the path upside seems to be slippery, considering the big hit on the US equities overnight.
US equities faltered, dragging the European shares down as well. The 200-points plunge of DJIA is expected to echo in Asia this Friday and could drag Asian shares including IDX into the vortex.
U.S. data point at better employment outlook while rising durable goods (ex-transports) investments in equipments in August also suggests that the Fed is on track to raise the rates sooner rather than later, possibly in mid-2015.
From the home front, the political chaos continues to roil the domestic political landscape. As the country is now on the verge of falling back to indirect election on the regional stage, we could see a potential slipup in investors’ confidence following the shock walkout by the Democrat Party last night.
USDIDR slipped again to 11,947 on Thursday from 11,976.
BUMI, BWPT
BUMI was suspended during the Thursday’s trading session after the company delayed the issuance of new shares which supposedly worth US$275 million. Following the bourse’s inquiry over the status of the new stock issuance, BUMI said that as the company now sees positive opportunities to further discuss the matter with creditors, the company has decided to delay the initial plan to issue new shares.
BWPT is planning to conduct rights issue this year with offering price between Rp390-Rp411 per share, a potential of Rp11.1T to be gained from the corporate action. The matter is still to be reviewed and awaiting approval from the OJK.
Technically Speaking...
JCI climbed back above 5,200, but the ground seems shaky as lack of meaningful changes in the technical indicators could mean the recent bounce may hardly last.
As the index managed to clear the 5,200 resistance handle once more, resistance mark, the next support to watch is 5,125 which is the 50-day EMA. Should we broke below this line, more supports are seen at 5,039 and 5,000.
On the upside, resistances are lining up at 5,251, ahead of the all-time record high at 5,262. Subsequently, the next psychological hurdle for the index at 5,300.
The MACD has reversed direction away from the zero line, while RSI is now back at the neutral area again. Volume seems to be steady recently. While all these are somehow good signs for the index, we should remain cautious over the risk of another setback as we approach the upper end of the expected trading range.
Day Ahead
There’s a storm coming, as the short-term outlook seems to be daunting following the sinking of DJIA and European equities overnight alongside the political turmoil on the home front. The bottom line is: we’re not seeing anything positive on the horizon at the moment, hence a slipup towards the bottom end of the consolidation range 5,100-5,250 may be on the cards this Friday.
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